Economic Forecast

Last Week in the News


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The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of manufacturing activity rose to 57 in December after reaching 56.6 in November. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 17th straight month of expansion.

Total construction spending rose 0.4% to $810.2 billion in November, following a 0.7% increase in October. Economists had anticipated an increase of 0.1% in November.

Retail sales rose 0.4% for the week ending January 1, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase 3.6%.

Factory orders rose 0.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted $424.5 billion. The increase follows a revised 0.7% decrease in October. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 2.4%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending December 31 rose 2.3%. Refinancing applications increased 3.9%. Purchase volume fell 0.8%.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 57.1 in December from 55 in November. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 12th straight month of expansion in the services sector and the fastest pace since May 2006.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 18,000 to 409,000 for the week ending January 1. Continuing claims for the week ending December 25 fell by 47,000 to 4.1 million. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4% in December from 9.8% in November.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on wholesale trade on January 11, wholesale inflation on January 13, and consumer inflation and retail sales on January 14.